Is Russia really loosing in Ukraine as claimed by popular Western Media?
HnExpress Mayank Chakravarty : Actually the same Western experts that claime that Russia is losing the war today also claimed that Taliban was losing the war in Afghanistan only months ago. Despite costly initial setbacks, the Russian Army pressed home its attack, achieving impressive gains in the south, where Russian forces operating out of Crimea secured the strategic city of Kherson and advanced on the equally important city of Mariupol.
There, they joined with Russian and allied forces from the Donetsk Republic to surround the Ukrainian forces defending Mariupol, eventually trapping the survivors, numbering several thousand strong, in the reinforced concrete underworld of the Azovstal steel factory. Further north, Russian forces, together with the forces of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics, advanced westward to drive Ukrainian forces from their prepared defenses to gain control of the totality of the territory encompassing the Donbass region.
Reality of Lost “Battle for Kiev” While securing the territorial integrity of the Donbass region was one of the primary objectives of the Russian special military operation, to accomplish this Russia carried out extensive supporting operations, which included a diversionary advance toward Kiev designed to fix Ukrainian forces in place and divert reinforcements away from the eastern front, as well as an amphibious feint off the coast of Odessa for the same purpose.
One of the primary objectives of the Russian Phase One campaign was to destroy Ukraine’s fuel and ammunition storage facilities and degrade Ukrainian command and control. The result is that while Ukraine held onto Kiev, it did so at an enormous cost in overall combat effectiveness. And while Russia was able to withdraw from the Kiev front and undergo a period of rest, rearmament, and reorientation (a normal action for military units that had been engaged in virtually non-stop combat operations for a month),
the Ukrainian military remained under pressure from incessant Russian aerial attack and bombardment from precision-guided cruise missiles and Russian artillery. Fall of Mariupol : Russia, however, has already declared victory in Mariupol. While conceding that a few thousand defenders remain dug into the Cold War-era bunkers underneath the Azovstal steel factory, These forces serve no meaningful military value. President Putin directed the military to seal off the Azov facility and wait the defenders out.
There is no doubt that the presence of Ukrainians in the Azovstal factory represents a propaganda victory for Ukraine. But the reality is that the city of Mariupol has fallen to Russia; while the Ukrainian defenders, possibly accompanied by thousands of civilians, waste away as their food supplies diminish, the rest of Mariupol is beginning the task of rebuilding a shattered city where an estimated 90% of the buildings have been damaged or destroyed in brutal street-to-street fighting.
The Russian land bridge is intact, and the Russian offensive against Donbass is proceeding without delay. Overall Situation in Donbass region : The fact of the matter is that the military aid being provided to Ukraine by the West will not have any discernable impact on a battlefield where Russia is asserting its dominance more and more each day. Not only is there not enough equipment being provided.
Hundreds of armored vehicles cannot replace the more than 2,580 that have been lost by Ukraine to date, nor can dozens of artillery pieces offset the more that 1,410 artillery tubes and rocket launchers destroyed by the Russian military. This is the current situation with the Ukrainian military facing off against the Russians in Donbass today. The Ukrainians, lacking any meaningful artillery support of their own, are at the mercy of the Russian artillery and rocket launchers that pound their positions day in and day out, without respite.
The Ukrainians, meanwhile, remain pinned down, unable to move without fear of being detected and destroyed by Russian air power, and as such doomed to be isolated and destroyed by Russian troops in due course. There is virtually no hope of reinforcement or relief for the Ukrainian forces operating on the front lines; Russia has interdicted the rail lines that had served as the conduit for resupply,
and the likelihood of any Ukrainian forces which have received heavy weapons provided by the West reaching the frontlines in any discernable strength is virtually zero. The Battle for Donbass is reaching its culminating point. Now let’s look at the actual results of the war so far keeping in mind that Russia’s primary targets were to de-Nazify and demilitarize Ukraine:
The Ukrainian defense industry : on March 31st, Reuters reported the Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych stated “They have practically destroyed our defense industry”. (Source: Russia has destroyed most of Ukraine’s defence industry – presidential adviser). So, how big is that industry? According to Wikipedia (source: Defense industry of Ukraine – Wikipedia) Ukraine occupied the 12th spot among global arms exporters in 2019, and this industry employed about 1 million people (down from 2.7 million in 1991).
This is something we never hear about in western media, but that is significant because if that is the only result of the war, then clearly Russia won. With regards to military infrastructure and weaponry, the Russian ministry of Defense on 4/3/22 reported: “In all, since the beginning of the special military operation, 125 warplanes and 88 helicopters, and 383 unmanned aerial vehicles, 221 surface-to-air missile systems, 1,903 tanks and other armored combat vehicles,
207 multiple-launch rocket systems, 805 field artillery armaments and mortars, as well as 1,781 units of special military automotive equipment have been eliminated.”
Source:https://tass.com/defense/1431655. This is in addition to the thousands of military sites, barracks, airports, fuel depots destroyed during this war. If half of those figures are correct, then Ukraine’s military capabilities are all but destroyed, in addition to the estimated 15,000-20,000 fighting in Mariupol who are practically lost. That puts the Ukrainian losses to at about 30,000- 40,000 dead soldiers in addition to the wounded and captured and basically that tells you the whole story.
For Ukraine though, the worst is yet to come because the bulk of the Ukrainian army (between 60,000 and 120,000 soldiers) is dug in in the Donbas area and is cutoff from the outside world. So if the Russians close the noose around from all sides and start shelling and bombarding them, then it will only be a matter of time before they surrender or get completely annihilated. Ukraine is currently blocked from the Black and Azov seas. They will certainly lose the Azov Sea forever and most probably the Black sea as well.
The results of course will be a much weaker Ukraine both economically and militarily. So when one looks at the whole picture, it is extremely difficult to conclude anything but that Russia is winning.
